2024 Oscars Predictions and Machine Learning Models by BigML
The 2023 movie year will be remembered as the “Barbenheimer Year” in the history of filmmaking. The releases of Barbie and Oppenheimer in sync earned over $2 billion worldwide, potentially helping the movie industry bounce back from its post-pandemic struggles. With the upcoming 96th Academy Awards this Sunday, the excitement is building up towards the big reveal of the Best Picture of 2023.
At BigML, it has become an annual tradition to share Machine Learning predictions for the Academy Awards. The 2024 nominees are stacked with critically acclaimed films, with Oppenheimer leading the pack with 13 nominations. Other notable contenders include Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Barbie.
The BigML team has collected data points on the 1,505 movies nominated for various awards from 2000 to 2023, including film characteristics, critic and audience reception measures, and industry award nominations and winners. This year, historical betting odds were added to test their predictive power alongside other data fields. The models have been generated using OptiML, BigML’s popular AutoML feature, to find the best-performing supervised models for each award category.
After creating Fusion models by combining the top-performing models, Batch Predictions were made against the movies produced in 2023. The emphasis on white-box models with full explainability allows for a deeper analysis of the models and predictions for added introspection.
The predictions for the 2024 Oscars include the most likely winners in each category, with Oppenheimer expected to sweep the night with multiple wins. The models also reveal other contenders in each category and provide insights into the likelihood of their success based on historical data.
In addition to the popular awards, technical categories such as Best Cinematography, Costume Design, and Visual Effects are also predicted. With nine Oscars predicted for Oppenheimer, the night promises to be a remarkable one for the film.
As the excitement builds towards the 96th Academy Awards, it’s time for movie enthusiasts to follow in BigML’s footsteps and make their own predictions or build their Machine Learning models. The post-Oscars follow-up will provide a grading of the predictions, but until then, good luck to all the Oscars hopefuls!